Bolivia: Election gives investors what they want

• Run-off in October between centre/right opposition candidates after they lead in yesterday's presidential election

• Rodrigo Paz now surprise favourite to beat Jorge Quiroga, but in practice little difference between them in policy terms

• Left implodes as opposition also take Congress, which could help governability and policymaking; upgrade to Buy

  
  

Opposition centre/right candidates came out on top in Bolivia's presential election held yesterday (Sunday, 17 August) although as no single candidate won an outright majority in the first round, the election heads to a run-off vote in October.

The outcome (a run-off between two centre/right opposition candidates) is as expected, it's just who the leading candidate is that is a surprise (although in practice, we don’t think that changes much).

Meanwhile, the result was nothing short of a disaster for the left, and especially the ruling MAS party (another positive for markets). The election outcome has ended MAS's 20-year domination of the Bolivian political landscape.

Results

Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) surprisingly won the presidential election with 32.2% of the valid vote on our calculations, with Jorge Tuto Quiroga (Libre alliance) in second on 26.9%, according to preliminary results reported by Unitel.

Few had mentioned Paz in the run-up to the election although we note he rose to third place in Unitel's final opinion poll on 10 August. Quiroga had long been in second place in the polls.