LatAm: Winners and losers of Trump’s Monroe Doctrine revival

• The US operation to capture Maduro has been a geopolitical earthquake, and will have a disproportionate impact on LAC

• The US, Marco Rubio, Venezuelans and Guyana are among the winners, while Petro/Cepeda, Mexico, Cuba are among the losers

• Countries and leaders will have to choose sides. Keep an eye on Peru, the Caribbean, Mexico, Brazil and Delcy Rodríguez

  
  

An increased focus on the Western Hemisphere was always going to be one of the themes for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) this year (see our year ahead report here), but we have been as taken aback by the swiftness and scale of the US display of overwhelming superpower supremacy in Venezuela on Saturday as anyone else.

Change will be afoot in Venezuela in the coming months, but the US keenness to engage with its neighbours through non-diplomatic ways will have repercussions beyond the country. That’s particularly true for the Western Hemisphere, where the Monroe Doctrine 2.0 (or the Donroe Doctrine, if you prefer) is now the law of the land. The immediate impact of this new geopolitical reality is already visible in how regional players are positioning, creating clear winners and losers.

Winners

The US, and especially its oil companies

Reasserting American hard power will make the US the partner of choice in the region. It’s not a free lunch, as a more assertive, unpredictable Washington could also alienate some of the countries trying to hedge between great powers with Brazil perhaps the most likely to lean further towards China. Even so, most countries in Latin America are likely to move closer to the US.