Nigeria: Another "never again" story that might rally

• Partial policy course correction (FX liberalised, rate hikes, fuel subsidy removal) and stabilisation (FX reserves up)

• Risk to staying the course (history of false dawns) and no expectation of structural reform to avoid the next crisis

• But currency and equity valuations are depressed: Argentina, Pakistan, and Turkey rallies show what might be in store

  
  

Every few years Nigeria asks us whether another moment has come to put its equities back on the investible radar of small emerging and frontier markets. Indeed, in the way that the rings in its trunk show the age of a tree, the number of crises in Nigeria survived by a frontier equity fund (not to mention the brokers and research analysts serving it) is an indication of its vintage.

So, perhaps, for the at least the fifth time in the last decade, the question resurfaces of whether there is a sufficient course correction on monetary, fiscal, and currency policy and recovery in crude oil production, as well as an enticing enough valuation to tempt foreign institutional investors back into Nigerian equities?