Tellimer's FX Valuation
A daily framework that helps investors identify whether 120 global currencies are genuine opportunities, or simply cheap for good reason. The model combines valuation, macro support, and external vulnerability to distinguish currencies that are likely to recover from those that may remain structurally weak.
Why a multi-factor approach matters in EM FX
In emerging markets, cheap currencies do not automatically rebound.
Some are temporarily mispriced and supported by fundamentals. Others are under pressure for deeper reasons - weak policy credibility, external imbalances, political risk, or deteriorating macro conditions.
Valuation matters, but it is not enough on its own. It provides a long-run anchor, while shorter- and medium-term FX performance is often driven by real rates, external financing conditions, and investor confidence.
The key question is not simply whether a currency looks cheap, but whether the mispricing is likely to close.
How the framework works
Tellimer FX Valuation provides a daily, decision-oriented view across EM FX.
The framework combines multiple valuation measures, including bilateral real exchange rates, REER, and PPP-based metrics, to identify currencies that appear rich or cheap relative to history and fundamentals.
These valuation signals are then assessed alongside:
Real rate differentials versus the US, to evaluate carry support
External vulnerability indicators, including reserves adequacy, current account dynamics, and sovereign risk pricing
Market-based stress indicators and FX regime signals
The result is a framework that moves beyond “cheap versus expensive” toward a more useful question:
Is the currency cheap, supported, and investable?
What the product delivers
The product provides a structured cross-market view of EM FX opportunities, centred on a daily composite Tellimer composite FX valuation, a currency vulnerability score and their respective rankings.
Each country page integrates valuation, carry support, and external risk into a single framework, alongside analytics showing realised and historical USD-based carry trade outcomes.
Key outputs include:
Composite FX valuation and country rankings
Country-level risk and vulnerability analysis
Real rate and carry support indicators
Historical and projected carry trade returns
External stress and FX regime signals
API-ready data delivery
Why it matters
Tellimer connects valuation with macro support, external stability, and realised investor outcomes.
That allows investors to assess not only whether a currency appears mispriced, but whether the opportunity is actually investable.
The framework helps investors compare opportunities consistently across EM, identify supported dislocations, avoid value traps, and prioritise risk-adjusted opportunities.