Gabon: Strikes, shutdowns and the search for an IMF anchor

• 2031 eurobonds slip 2% as strikes spread and social media blackout jars IMF-fuelled rally

• IMF mission set for late Feb; no formal request yet, but engagement suggests programme momentum

• Fiscal deficit already projected to widen to 10.1% by 2030; unrest raises risks of wider deficits

  
  

Gabon's 2031 eurobonds gave back some of their year-to-date gains this week after social unrest escalated and the government moved to shut down social media across the country. The sell-off is a reminder that the recent rally, fuelled by hopes of an IMF programme, sits on fragile ground.

Teachers launched a strike in December over a decade-long freeze on career progression and pay, paralysing the public school system. The movement has since spread to health workers, who filed a strike notice in January under a new "Urgence Santé" collective, and to petroleum sector unions, who deposited their own notice the same month. The petroleum action prompted the most visible response: Vice-President Hermann Immongault convened emergency talks with union representatives on 13 February, flanked by the ministers of petroleum and labour, in what amounted to an acknowledgement that disruption to the oil sector would hit public revenues directly. Protests have also spread to local government and broadcasting.

On 15 February, responding to the spread of cost of living protests the government suspended import duties and VAT on basic goods for six months in a bid to ease pressure on households. If these measures last, they will weigh on the country’s already deteriorating fiscal outlook. The IMF projected in its October WEO that Gabon's overall fiscal deficit would worsen from 3.8% of GDP in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026, rising further to 10.1% by 2030 under unchanged policies.